
PropheZine #59

Monday June 2, 1998

Bob Lally Publisher
Mimi Nila Senior Editor
Rick Woodcock Asst. Editor

Bob Lally.................Welcome
Mimi Nila.................Brief Message

ARTICLES
Don McAlvany.............Global Cyber-Meltdown In the Year 2000
Gordon McDonald .........Putting Prudence into Practice
R. G. Wallace................WHEN ARMIES MOVE
A Dissertation on Armageddon from the Pre-wrath Perspective

PROPHEZINE NEWSBYTES
ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook ....... Bennett Hearing Finds Y2K Disclosure
Lacking
(Source Wash)Reuters.............FBI Unit Reports 'Substantial' Cyber
Attacks
Dennis Elenburg....................Rankings of the Y2K Experts
Stephen Barr -Washington Post...........Pentagon Faulted on Year 2000
Reports
BBC Online Network...............400-Year-Old Device Hit By Millennium Bug
Craig Menefee, Newsbytes...........Year 2000 Bug? What's That? Say 38% In US
Survey

Lee Underwood ..............................F.Y.I. - Israel in the News

*************************************
Greetings!

In line with our inclusion of the entire Gary North Y2K website on the
Prophezine website and search engine, we have designed this issue
around Y2K articles. When you finish reading these articles and need
additional Y2K information, head on over to the PropheZine
search engine (http://www.prophezine.com/search/).  We have
included over 1,500 articles on Y2K.

We need to increase our staff.  You will be joining one of the largest
bible prophecy websites on the net.  We are averaging 27,000 visits
per month (230,000+ hits) and this month we are growing at a rate
of 20%.  We have activity from 86 countries.  We need additonal
assistant editors (contact Mimi meems@ibm.net),
prayer warriors (contact Greg gshambo@solve.net) and HTML coders
(contact Scott sforsyth@uuproductions.com).  In the next few weeks
we hope to begin adding an additional 120 audio messages.  We'll
keep you posted (watch the home page for an announcement
 http://www.prophezine.com  ).

I have added a Chat Room which will you find from the Home Page.

We will begin offering limited advertising on the web site.  If you are
interested in advertising please contact Bob Lally
(bobslally@prophezine.com) for information.

We thank you for your support and I ask that you please place the
PropheZine Teams on your prayer lists as we certainly need them
with this incredible and almost overwhelming growth.

Bob Lally
Webmaster
*************************************
Hello to everyone,

We at Prophezine felt this issue of Y2K is just a glimpse of the bigger
picture to come.  We are truly in the last days.  For me this subject almost
personal.  As I have shared with you before Y2K is currently the means by
which the Lord has allowed me to help my family financially.  Maybe I'm just
too close to Y2K to share my feelings on this subject.  However, I would
like to share our experience with you shortly about what it has been like
sharing news of a catastrophic event to other people, non-Christian and
Christian alike.

Bad news, is not well received any way you put it, especially for
non-believers.  But even for my brothers and sisters in Christ, who know the
Lord will return any second day or night, facing the prospect of some
difficulties involving life changing events is proving to be a more
challenging ministry effort than I ever thought it would be.  People are not
as grounded in the Word as I thought.  If the full council of God is not
taught, from Genesis to Revelation then we have been given an incomplete
gospel.  I am seeing the effects of that in some people who may be at a
disadvantage being new in Christ, but there are some who have been
Christians for years but ignore Prophecy and current events for one reason
or another.  The ministry opportunity to share the Glory of God and freedom
in Christ is enormous.  Some sisters and brothers in Christ, myself and my
husband felt led by the Lord to start a Y2K awareness group biblically
based, to help people understand where we were heading both for Y2K
awareness and to minister to those who may feel fear or panic over this
subject.  Our intentions were and still are to help people not feel hopeless
in a situation such as Y2K which can seem overwhelming.  For those who felt
led after much prayer to prepare physically for their family we wanted to
provide them resources.

And we wanted to also be there for those people who needed Christ centered
counseling if necessary.  Never did we intend to cause panic.  However, it
is almost impossible to ensure that everyone will take the information in a
balanced way.  We have experienced a certain amount of worry and fear from
people and this is where the Holy Spirit graciously equips us to minister to
those who will be hurting now and in the future.

The blessing from the Lord during all this has been to allow our ministry
group to prepare and be prepared at a time when others may need help
physically and spiritually in dealing with this crisis.  If the Lord had not
given us the foresight to prepare ahead of others then we would be
distracted by our own preparations and would miss the incredible ministering
opportunities God will bring into our lives.

Ezekiel33:2-6 "Son of man, speak to the children of your people, and say to
them: 'When I bring the sword upon a land, and the people of the land take a
man from their territory and make him their watchman, 'when he sees the
sword coming upon the land, if he blows the trumpet and warns the people,
then whoever hears the sound of the trumpet and does not take warning, if
the sword comes and takes him away, his blood shall be on his own head. 'He
heard the sound of the trumpet, but did not take warning; his blood shall be
upon himself. But he who takes warning will save his life. 'But if the
watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet, and the people
are not warned, and the sword comes and takes any person from among them, he
is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood I will require at the
watchman's hand.'

May He Bless you and keep you,
In His Service,
Mimi Nila
Mnila@ibm.net
*************************************
Global Cyber-Meltdown In the Year 2000
By Don McAlvany

"Forget about a silver bullet.  It seems that in most mainframe programs,
dates appear more often than M*A *S*H reruns on television   about once in
every 50 lines of code, with many computers containing millions, if not TENS
of millions of lines. Typically, it's hard to find those particular lines,
because the original programs, often written in the ancient COBOL computer
language, are quirky and undocumented." - Newsweek, June 2, 1997

"Getting the Year 2000 issue right is critical for every organization.
Failure to get it right will effect the integrity of the payments system and
the performance of the domestic, and maybe even the global economy." -
William McDonnough, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, 9/21/97

   "The Year 2000 software problem... is likely to be the greatest challenge
ever faced by the world economy. Its size, scope, and solution, as well as
the immovability of its end date, are likely to show that it will be one of
the most complex projects ever undertaken by mankind." Elmer Roberg,
president of Business Transformation Services, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

    The great awakening has begun! Corporate and banking executives, the
heads of large government agencies, and even the management of the airlines
have begun the scramble to become Y2K compliant. However, the majority of
the general public and many small to medium-sized companies remain at this
writing almost completely oblivious to the problem.

   And the mainline media (for the most part) continues to ignore, suppress,
or minimize the Y2K story, just as they have ignored the Clinton scandals
over the past five years. It is interesting that Bill Clinton, who has every
reason to talk about and rally the American people around a Y2K compliance
crusade (if for no other reason than to divert attention away from his
Monica Lewinsky affair) has remained virtually silent on Y2K.

   The president did not even mention one word about Y2K in his recent State
of the Union address. Is it possible that he and his comrades would like to
keep the public asleep as long as possible, and then, when public panic
ensues (which is likely to occur as we near December 31, 1999) declare a
State of National Emergency.

   MIA has knowledgeable, sources in Washington who believe that this
scenario could eventuate, and that if the Y2K crisis is as severe as the
pessimists believe, that the State of National Emergency could be used as an
excuse for canceling the Year 2000 presidential election.
[ED. NOTE:     It should be remembered that in a State of National
Emergency, martial law will be declared and the Constitution suspended.
Would Bill Clinton or Al Gore do such a thing?]

   As of 3/1/98, there were 670 programming days until midnight of
12/31/99 - until the world's computers will have to be Y2K compliant. How is
the U.S. and the world doing? Not so good! Lloyds of London has announced
that it will not insure airlines if the airlines and air traffic control
system are not Y2K compliant. Currently there is not a single airline in the
world which is compliant. Nor is any air traffic control operation in the
world.

   IBM has told the FAA it will not support the 3038 mainframe computers
which run the air traffic control centers around the U.S. after midnight,
December 31, 1999. In doing so, they have basically said the computers
cannot be made Y2K compliant and that they will not support them. The
programming language is apparently machine language, which only a limited
number of people know how to program. The FAA has added numerous corrections
and additions over the years which make the entire air traffic system
extraordinarily complex and difficult to fix.

   KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has said they will ground all their aircraft on
1/1/2000 and it is reported that American Airlines is planning to do
likewise. Probably all of the world's airlines will be forced to follow
suit. What if the shutdown of U.S. or global air transport lasts days,
weeks, or months? What are the implications for the already fragile U.S. and
world economy? Do you want to board the first airliner to fly after midnight
12/31/99?

   [ED. NOTE: Virtually all insurance companies are saying that the Y2K
crisis is not an "act of God" and that they will NOT pay on disasters or
financial losses precipitated by Y2K.J

   The 2/18/98 Wall Street JournaL, in a front page article entitled: 'Help
Wanted. The IRS Searches For A World Class Computer Wizard," described how
the IRS's chief information officer. Arthur Gross. who was in charge of the
IRS' problem-ridden Y2K-comnliance program. has resigned for a better
opportunity in private industry. [ED. NOTE: Is this something like the
captain of the ill-fated Titanic jumping ship an hour before the great liner
began its final death plunge? It's called "save your reputation.'

   The article went on to describe how IRS commissioner Charles Rossotti has
hired an executive search firm (Korn/Ferry) to find a replacement for Gross
and quoted Rossotti as saying: 'Mr. Gross's successor will face the biggest
technology management challenge in the world." The article concluded:
"Finding a replacement for Mr. Gross won 't be easy," a New York accountant
warns, "when you get to work for the IRS at half the pay or less than you
'11 get in the private sector."

   The IRS computer system is in serious danger of a major meltdown in the
Year 2000 (see below for greater detail), but then so are many other federal
government agencies and most of their counterparts in foreign governments
around the world. The U.S. Government Office of Management and Budget's
Fourth Quarter '97 survey of government agency compliance indicates that 10
of 24 agencies are critically behind in upgrading their systems. The 14
agencies which are supposedly making headway cannot substantiate or document
their progress.

   A small sample of the agencies the 0MB Report says are in real trouble
include:
                                 ESTIMATED DATE
     AGENCY                      OF COMPLIANCE
    Dept. of Labor & Energy             2019
    Dept. of Defense                    2012
    Dept. of Transportation             2010
     (including FAA)
    Dept. of Agriculture                2005
    Dept. of Treasury                   2004
     (including IRS)     GSA            2002
    Dept. of Justice                    2001
    FEMA (Fed. Emergency                2000.5
      Management Agency)

   It is awe inspiring to know that (according to the 0MB Report) the agency
responsible for bailing us out of disasters (FEMA), or implementing a State
of National Emergency, won't be ready for this one.

   Part I of this report on the Millennium Bug (the February '98 issue of
MIA) defined the Y2K problem; why America will not be ready for Y2K; the
problem of the elusive, embedded computer chips - estimated by some experts
to be 30 billion in number worldwide, with 1.5 to 3 billion non-2000
compliant chips; the Y2K impact on the U.S. banking and financial system,
the securities industry, business, the economy, and the U.S. electric power
grid.

   This issue of MIA (Part II) will analyze the impact of the Millennium Bug
on U.S. rail and air transportation; on U.S. national defense; on the IRS,
Social Security, and Medicare; and on U.S. and global food supplies. It will
explore the implications of Y2K for American cities; the U.S. legal system;
the global socialists' thrust for a New World Order; and the convergence of
three major crises at the same time over the next 6-18 months. The so-called
"Rogue Wave" - comprised of the Asian financial meltdown. the scandals
rocking the American presidency. and the Y2K computer crisis will all impact
America simultaneously over the next year or so   creating potentially the
greatest political, social, and financial upheaval in American history.

   This report will conclude with recommendations to prepare for, and
survive the Y2K crisis, including the acquisition of food reserves in the
event that the U.S. and global food production/distribution system goes into
gridlock in the Year 2000.
   (ED. NOTE: Already, a quiet run to acquire food reserves has begun - with
supplies of same likely to be drying up or going into gridlock by early to
mid-1999.  And U.S. $20 double eagle gold coins are in the shortest supply
in over 30 years. Knowledgeable people who understand the times are taking
defensive action in growing numbers now.)

THE IMPACT OF Y2K ON AMERICA

THE IMPACT ON U.S. RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION
    The operational nightmare the Union Pacific Railroad is going through in
its inept attempt to integrate its computer system with that of the recently
acquired Southern Pacific is just one example of the crippling gridlock that
is likely to eventuate from Y2K problems in advanced electronically
integrated economies like ours. - Edward Yardeni, in an interview with
Barron's (11/3/97)
   The average American who never rides a train, has no idea how dependent
the U.S. is on railroads. Railroads in America today do most of the heavy
hauling of such raw materials and staples as coal, petroleum, heating oil,
chemicals, and food. Even millions of container-size truckbeds loaded with f
inished goods are hauled by rail.  Most large cities are primarily fed,
warmed, and provisioned by the railroads, which carry most of the coal and
heating oil which runs our electric power plants. Just one railroad, Union
Pacific, moves 350.000 carloads of freight on a normal day.

   If the railroads. which are heavily computer dependent (100%) go down due
to Y2K non-compliance. the lights will go out. the fuel will dry up. and we
will run out of food - especially in large or medium-sized American cities.
And it should be understood that of all American industries. the railroads
are among the farthest behind in Y2K repairs.

   We are not just talking about payroll and accounting computers at the
railroads - we're talking about computers that schedule and signal train
movements to get them on location on time; that keep them from running into
each other while en route; that operate track switching mechanisms; that
track the exact location and movement of over a million rail cars (boxcars,
tankers, flatbeds, top and bottom loading cars for wheat, corn, soybeans,
coal, sulfur, fertilizer, plastics, and a host of chemicals upon which
industry is dependent).

   For the railroads to continue operating, all these computers must
continue talking to one another and to the computers of competitor
railroads, suppliers and customers. If they can't interface. due to the Y2K
problem.
the trains will stop. the rail system will go into gridlock, and the U.S.
economy will grind to a halt. Each rail car has a number on its side which
is entered into a mainframe computer which routes and keeps track of the
movement and location of that car. These cars, often owned by investors, are
often transferred to other railroads. Evervthing is controlled by large
mainframe computers which may be thousands of miles away.

   Up until the past 20 years, train orders, which were typically written
out in longhand, were sent by an open telephone line from a dispatcher.
These orders, which governed train movement, were handed up to passing
trains, and switches were operated manually through a tower interlocking
plant. The entire system was manual, it was simple, it was labor intensive,
but it worked.

   Then railroad management decided to cut labor costs by adopting
state-of-the-art computer technology to eliminate all of the operators and
levermen, and issue the train orders via radio transmission directly to the
train crew. Train crews were cut from four to two (an engineer and a
conductor) and all the old switching towers were torn down and replaced with
sophisticated electronics linked to the dispatcher by regular telephone
lines.
Today there is no manual switching.

   If the Y2K bug affects computers, power supply, and the telephone
companies (as it is very likely to do), the nation's rail lines will grind
to a sudden halt. If trains cannot receive their right of way train orders,
no engineer or conductor will move his train an inch. No crew can move the
train without authority from the dispatcher. To do so would invite disaster
(a train wreck). If the Y2K problem shuts down the railroads, it would take
years to rebuild the old technology (to rebuild the switching towers and
their old interlocking machines, which use ancient electro-mechanical
contact technology, rehire new towermen, signal maintainers, operators, etc.

   UNION PACIFIC - A CASE STUDY IN TRANSCONTINENTAL RAIL GRIDLOCK -
Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the country, with 53,000
employees - carrying 350,000 carloads of freight on a normal day. By its own
description, Union Pacific is "one of North America's leading
transportation, computer technology, and logistics companies, with
operations in all 50 states, Canada and Mexico." Union Pacific has developed
a highly integrated system (totally computer dependent) that controls all
aspects of railroad operation, including:

  1. Billing and rating
  2. Car and train movement
  3. Empty car distribution
  4. Freight car scheduling
  5. Yard classification and inventory control
  6. Car cycle inquiries
  7. Intermodal system
  8. Locomotive scheduling and maintenance
  9. Crew dispatching
  10.Work order management
  11.Interline shipment monitoring

   In 1995, Union Pacific discovered that it had a Y2K problem with software
programs which handle five-year scheduling, budgeting, and forecasting; and
initially identified 12 million lines of code to repair. A company analysis
revealed that 82.5% of the programs had date related fields, with 7,000
COBOL programs which needed fixing - requiring about 200,000 man-hours.

   In July. 1997, Union Pacific management acknowledged that only about 6%
of its repairs had been made -  with 94% still pending. Union Pacific is the
farthest ahead in Y2K of any of the U.S. railroads - most of which have
either ignored the problem. or have simply done no work to correct it. At
present rates of repair NONE of the railroads (including Union Pacific) will
be Y2K compliant by 12/31/99.

   Why did Union Pacific get distracted from its Y2K compliance repairs for
two years? In 1996, Union Pacific acquired the Southern Pacific Railroad,
and began to try to integrate the highly complex and diverse computer
systems of the two railroads. Integrating the two has been a nightmare,
according to Union Pacific spokesmen. The merger and resultant computer
gridlock have been a disaster for Union Pacific and for the entire U.S.
railroad system - giving a very useful example of the kind of gridlock which
is likely to become widespread after January 1, 2000.

   The San Francisco Chronicle (10/11/97) carried an article entitled:
Transcontinental Rail Gridlock - Merging of SP, UP Tracks Creates A Train
Bottleneck, which illustrates the vulnerability of these (and all other)
U.S.
railroads:

   "When Union Pacific swallowed the San Francisco based Southern Pacific
last year, it hoped the result would be the nation's biggest - and perhaps
best railroad. Instead the merger is choking the UP and spreading chaos
throughout the nation's rail system. It is the corporate merger from hell.
The well-regarded Union Pacific took over the ailing Southern Pacific last
year for $3.9 billion, but when it tried to put the two systems together the
SP's problems spilled out of control over the larger line.

   "The result was rail gridlock that began with paralysis in a switching
yard in Houston last summer and spread all over the West like a disease. Now
it is affecting shipments of frozen french fries from Idaho to Japan,
automobile parts, Amtrack passenger trains, even shipping containers full of
stuffed animal toys bound from China for the Christmas market. It all moves
by rail - or did. The Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the history
of the country and carries 350,000 carloads of freight on a normal day.

   "The railroad says the southern corridor - from Los Angeles to Texas and
the Midwest, has the worst logjam, but it also says jams extend on what it
calls the central corridor, from the Bay Area to the Midwest, and up and
down the coast as far north as Seattle. 'The problems are all over.  We're
seeing delays of anywhere between JO and 30 days,' said David McLean,
director of marketing for Circle International, a San Francisco freight
forwarding company that arranges transportation for other businesses.

   "The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the biggest in the country and
heavily dependent on UP's unit trains, are jammed with cargo that can't
move. The situation has gotten so bad that the railroad even offered to
bring an American flag cargo ship out of mothballs and sail it from Oakland
to the East Coast carrying stranded rail cargo.

   "Every railroad in the country is affected from the 35,000-mile-long
Union Pacific to the 40-mile-long California Western "Skunk Line" in
Mendocino County, which can't get enough flat cars to move finished lumber
from a mill at Fort Bragg.

   "The beleaguered UP is so jammed and desperate it is diverting cargo to
rival rail lines and even hired 200 trucks - delighting highway carriers
that are the railroad's biggest freight competitors. 'The UP problem is a
cancer that is affecting the whole system,' said Ed Rastatter, director of
policy development for the National Industrial Transportation League, an
association that represents 1,200 rail and truck customers.

   "The UP is in 'chaos,' said Brian Rosenwald, a Los Angeles-based Amtrack
executive. The system's main lines are jammed with trains that can't move
because of a lack of rail yard space, a lack of locomotives or a lack of
train crews. It is, said one former Southern Pacific executive, 'a virus
that is spreading out of control.'

   "The problems started when the Union Pacific tried to merge its train
operations in its southern region with the SP properties it had purchased.
Integrating two systems in a single critical rail yard in Houston blocked a
major switching hub. It limited the merged line's ability to move cars
between the West Coast and the Midwest and East, and the resulting traffic
jam backed everything up, producing railroad gridlock.

   "Some shippers say it is taking a month to move a freight car from the
West Coast to Texas. There is a backlog of 30,000 freight containers in Los
Angeles/Long Beach harbors. One company directly caught up in the problem is
San Francisco-based Chevron Corp.  The oil giant has two chemical plants in
east Texas that between them produce 2 billion pounds of polyethylene
pellets a year. Both plants are served by UP lines.

"'When Union Pacific has problems, we have problems,' said Mike Parker,
general manager of Chevron's supply chain management in Houston. Parker says
transit times for his rail shipments are averaging 25 percent to 30 percent
longer because of UP delays. That lost time means problems for his
manufacturing customers. 'Once things start to back up, the whole thing
spirals down the production line,' he said. Chevron has already suffered
lost sales and expenses are going up too as it is forced to hire trucks to
get its product to customers. The company won't quantify its losses but is
negotiating with UP to make up some of the shortfall.

"The crisis began just over a year ago when the Union Pacific, based in
Omaha, took over its oldest rival, the Southern Pacific, which had its
headquarters at 1 Market Street, San Francisco. Both lines had long ties to
the West, and together they formed the country's first trans-continental
railroad in 1869. SP was for years the biggest and one of the most powerful
rail companies in the country, but in recent years it had severe financial
problems. In the early '90s it was a candidate for a merger.

   "'It started in mid-June, grew over the summer, was significant by August
and extremely serious by the Labor Day weekend,' UP spokesman John Bromley
said. In effect, even the company admits the problem spiraled out of
control. As of yesterday [10/10/97], the Union Pacific was so jammed up, it
wanted to move 40,000 railroad cars off the system onto other rails - enough
to make up a freight train nearly 500 miles long.

   "The railroad has submitted what it calls 'a recovery plan' to the
Surface Transportation Board, but admits it will take at least 90 days to
straighten the problem out.  The crisis might even threaten the life of some
small lines. Because the UP's lines are tied up, the Northwestern Pacific, a
300-mile line that runs from Napa County to Eureka is getting only 25 cars a
week from the Union Pacific to move freight. 'We could use 230 cars,' said
executive director Dan Hauser." (End of article.)

   Union Pacific has found it almost impossible to merge its computer system
with South Pacific's different system. In Kansas and other Midwest grain
producing states, the rail service deteriorated so badly last fall that in
Kansas alone. 24 million bushels of grain were never picked up by the
railroad and delivered to market. Much of that grain will not get to market
until next spring - a six to eight month delay. (ED. NOTE: When it arrives,
it will be in a deteriorated condition.)

   According to the 10/13/97 Wall Street Journal, "The nation's largest
railroad has lost its ability to track thousands of freight cars." The
recent turmoil in Union Pacific's railroad system is a preview of coming
attracttions of the sort of disruptions in rail transportation, shipping,
manufacturing, retailing, and power generation that may become widespread
after January 1.2000 - especially if (as now appears likely) none of the
nation's railroads are Y2K compliant. Many old-timers say the current
situation is the biggest railroading crisis in decades.

THE IMPACT OF Y2K ON U.S. FOOD SUPPLIES

   Food shortages, nationally and globally, could be a natural consequence
of a Year 2000 computer meltdown.  Such shortages could result from failures
in the power grid; banking problems which squeeze the credit lines of
farmers and ranchers; social unrest which make food deliveries into the
major cities dangerous or impossible such as during the Los Angeles riots in
the spring of '92:  or a breakdown in the railroad/truck distribution system
which is highly computer dependent and, in the case of trucking, is highly
dependent on the very Y2K vulnerable Global Positioning System.

   The world is believed to have only about 50 days of grain reserves. Most
large American cities have only four to five days of food on grocery shelves
or in food warehouses, while the average family only has two to three days
supplies (or at the most a week). Many city dwellers eat the majority of
their meals out - many of them at fast food restaurants - which must be
resupplied with food every two to three days. Americans are highly dependent
upon various parts of the social infrastructure to provide, cook and deliver
food to us. What if the Year 2000 problem interrupts this finely tuned
system?

  a) COMPUTERIZED INVENTORY CONTROL - A primary concern in a Y2K crisis is
food inventories. Most grocery stores and restaurants (fast food or
otherwise) must be completely restocked every few days.  Razor-thin profit
margins require keeping inventories low and using a 'just-in-time" (JIT)
delivery mechanism to restock on a frequent basis. Much of the restocking of
perishable goods takes place on a daily basis.

   Inventory levels in most supermarkets are not nearly as large as a casual
observer might suppose. Accelerated buying in preparation for a snowstorm or
hurricane will empty most store shelves within hours. The bottom line is
that precise inventory management and a well-honed delivery infrastructure
are crucial for maintaining the well-stocked grocery store which for
granted.  The same is true for restaurants. A Year 2000 problem can easily
disrupt that delivery-inventory management process. Most large supermarkets
would be lost without computerized inventory/reordering control, with dates
and date calculations essential to the whole process.  They could return to
manual systems, but it would take weeks or months to make such a changeover.


As Edward Yourdon wrote in Time Bomb 2000: "It is very possible that the
inventory management systems, delivery scheduling systems. and much of the
'intelligence' that insures the Proper stockpiling of the proper items at
the proper time may blow up on January 1. 2000 - indeed a few of these
systems are already blowing up." [ED. NOTE: Marks & Spencer in England has
already experienced Year 2000 date problems in its inventory.

   b)     DELIVERY OF THE FOOD IS THE WEAK LINK
- Transporting food items from the farm, the fishery, the bakery or the
slaughter house to grocery stores or restaurants may be the biggest
challenge in the Y2K crisis. This requires a vast, intricate network of
ships, planes, trains, and trucks - all synchronized to deliver the right
amount of food items while they're still fresh. The potential vulnerability
of the transportation system (i.e.. railroads, trucking, air traffic) due to
Y2K could "ripple" quickly into food delivery problems.

   Take New York City, for example - several islands with 8 million people -
accessible by bridges, tunnels, boats, or planes. No food will reach the
city except by boat, plane, train, or truck Massive quantities of food must
be shipped in each day - mostly by trucks (either owned by large companies
like Dole, Heinz, etc., by dairy companies, grocery chains or, in most
cases, by independent truckers).

   In the first few weeks or months of the Year 2000, if America's computers
go into gridlock, traffic lights, bridges, and tunnels may not be
functioning properly especially if the power grid goes down nationally or
regionally or brownouts or blackouts are occurring in New York. The welfare
checks may have stopped, the banks and payments system may not be
functioning properly, crime (shootings, hijackings, and robberies) will be
up sharply: and police and fire protection (without their high tech
communications) will be badly crippled.

   As a trucker living in New Jersey - food deliveries into the City have
become more than a stressful aggravation - they have become dangerous. Under
these circumstances, the supply of food moving into the cities by trucks
could begin to dry up, food riots would follow, and the food shortages would
begin to snowball. This scenario could be played out in Washington, D.C.,
Boston, Newark, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Miami, Denver, Phoenix,
Los Angeles, San Francisco and dozens of other American cities.

   Rural or small-town dwellers will fare much better because they are
closer to the source of the food, can barter with farmers or ranchers, or be
more self-sufficient and grow their own food.

   c)     GRIDLOCK IN AMERICAN RAILROAD
AND TRUCK DELIVERY SYSTEMS -

As discussed in the section above, America's railroads are almost 100%
computer dependent and are not likely to be Y2K compliant. About half of
America's total food movements (primarily bulk grains moving to food
processors) move by rail. The present problems in rail deliveries may rise
exponentially after January 1, 2000. Remember, the 24 million bushels of
grain that sat at railheads in Kansas last fall, which never got picked up
by Union Pacific, and which never got delivered to market.

   A USDA report on grain shipment problems entitled:
'Rail Problems Disrupt Marketing Plans" (11/13/97) gives us an interesting
look into the future: "The 1997 crisis of Union Pacific Railroad is now a
factor in US. grain shipments. Here is a recent United States Department of
Agriculture report. It says that part of the problem has to do with
incompatible computers.

   'Rail shippers in many parts of the nation have been experiencing serious
shipment delays and service disruptions since late summer. The impact of the
current problems varies substantially from region to region and market to
market. Grain shippers in the lower plains and western Corn Belt have been
especially" hard hit by these problems. Western livestock and poultry
feeders that depend on rail shipments of feed grains from these areas have
also had to struggle to secure sufficient feed supplies to maintain their
herds and flocks.

   "The service problems now plaguing many grain shippers in the western
United States began in July on the Union Pacific (UP) in and around the
Houston market. The initial problems appear to have stemmed from stronger
than anticipated intermodal and petrochemical demand combined with UP'5
efforts to consolidate its operations with those of the South Pacific
Railroad (SP).

   'Among the factors contributing to the UP-SP consolidation problems were
incompatibility of computer systems between the railroads, unsettled labor
agreements that restricted crewing flexibility, and lack of adequate
locomotive power to move trains.

   "With the fall harvest and increased demand for grain transportation, the
UP's troubles have quickly spread to other areas and other railroads,
especially the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF).

"The current rail service problems are substantially different in nature
than the types of equipment shortages and service delays that shippers have
routinely experienced following many recent harvests. Since early September,
grain car loadings on the major railroads have averaged 23,250 cars per week
(3,200-3,400 bushels per car). This is down nearly 20% from the average
weekly loading during the same period in 1996 when many shippers in the
western corn belt and upper plains experienced serious equipment shortages
and service disruptions.

   "Grain traffic on the three major western US. railroads - the Burlington
Northern Santa Fe, Kansas City Southern (KCS). and UP - is also down this
fall as compared with 1996 traffic.  Weekly loadings on these carriers are
averaging 16,300 cars per week, down 17% or nearlv 3.500 car loads ver week
from the same weeks in 1996."

CONCLUSION: Widespread U.S. and global food shortages are likely to
eventuate in the Year 2000 as a result of the Y2K crisis. Major cities will
be the hardest hit, with rural areas and small towns faring far better.
Your best protection is to not live in a major city - and if vou do. to
relocate. Secondly, you need to have a means of growing some food, store at
least one to two years of food reserves, or both. Food reserves will begin
to dry up by the second half of 1998, and will be very tight in the second
half of 1999.

   FINAL THOUGHT -

Are Americans prepared for the financial, social, political meltdown which
could occur as a result of the Y2K crisis and which may be exacerbated by
the Asian financial meltdown and the present Washington political scandals?
Are they prepared physically, geographically, financially, psychologically,
or spiritually for what could be the greatest crisis in American history?
The answer to those two questions is a resounding NO   at least for 95%
(plus) of the American people who are either ignorant of the Y2K/Millennium
Bug problem, oblivious to its implications for them, their families, jobs,
or communities, or who are in downright denial.

In a book entitled The Sovereign Individual, authors James Dale Davidson and
Lord William Rees-Mogg wrote: 'A recent psychological study disguised as an
opinion poll showed that members of individual occupational groups were
almost uniformly unwilling to accept any conclusion that implied a loss of
income for them, no matter how airtight the logic supporting it" It's called
"psychological denial," and when these people finally do awaken to the
crisis, they will panic and stampede in a dozen different directions. They
will also become very angry that "they were not warned" or "protected" by
the government, their employers, their bank, stock broker, etc.

   Proverbs 22:3 and 27:12 both say: 'A prudent man sees danger and takes
refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.,' (NIV) The King James
Version says in the first half of that verse that 'A prudent man forseeth
the evil and hideth himself" It is interesting that the verse is repeated
twice, verbatim, within five chapters. In Proverbs 6:6-8, the ant is
commended for anticipating winter and making appropriate preparations: "Go
to the ant you sluggard consider its ways and be wise!  It has no commander,
no overseer or ruler, yet it stores its provisions in summer and gathers its
food at harvest."

The ant stores its provisions for a season; Joseph in the book of Genesis,
stored food for Egypt for seven years. The principle of preparedness. while
still trusting in the Lord and not worrying or being anxious over the
"crisis of the day" is found throughout the Bible. The principle of flight
from disaster or destruction is also found throughout the scriptures for
God's people  (i.e., "When they persecute you in one city, flee to the
next,,, Matthew 10:23).

   The Bible is replete with examples of God's people fleeing from, or
hiding from disaster. David (fleeing from Saul); Lot (fleeing from Sodom);
Elijah (fleeing from Rahab and Jezebel); Moses (fleeing from Pharaoh -
Exodus 2:15); Jesus (fleeing and escaping his persecutors and moving about
secretly - "until his hour came" at the Garden of Gethsemane [Luke 4:28-30,
John 8:59,10:39, 12~36]. Paul also did a lot of escaping by night and out of
windows in city walls, though he was in no sense averse to dying and going
to be with the Lord (Phil. 1:21-23). He, and many other believers simply
exercised reasonable caution so as to not prematurely shorten their lives
and ministries. These believers (including Jesus) were not afraid of death -
it simply wasn't their time.

   In the history of Christianity, Christians have frequently fled en masse
from dangerous places to safer ones.  Jewish believers escaped from
Jerusalem before the holocaust of 70 A.D. when Roman Emperor Titus killed
one million Jews in that city; in 1685, 400,000 Huguenots fled France to
escape persecution; Moravians fled en masse from their native Moravia to
Zinzendorf' s estate in Germany; Armenian believers escaped to America
before the Turkish massacre of those who remained behind.

I have encountered hundreds of believers who fled the persecution in the
former Soviet Union, Red China, and Cuba and dozens more who remained and
functioned undercover and in hiding in the underground church in those
countries.  Many who remained by choice, necessity, or by the clear will of
the Lord were imprisoned and/or martyred for their faith (millions since
1917 right up through today).

In Luke 21, Jesus was asked by his disciples on the Mount of Olives what
would be the signs of his return and the end of the age and He responded by
describing a period of great deception, persecution, betrayal, and
suffering.  In Luke 21:20-21 He also warned of foreign armies coming against
Jerusalem and indicated that believers should hastily escape the danger:
"When you see Jerusalem being surrounded by armies, you will know that its
destruction is near. Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains,
let those in the city get out and let those in the country not enter the
city."

In a future period of chaos and upheaval in America, some people who
understand the times will move out of the cities and into a small town, the
country, or even the mountains. (This writer, his family, and company did so
almost six years ago.) Others will remain in the cities because the Lord
directs them to do so.  But many will remain in the cities and make no
preparations because of apathy, complacency, laziness, or denial - and many
of those may fare very poorly over the next few years.

In MIA's view, the place to be, as well as your level of preparedness should
be based on the Lord's guidance and direction in your life. As Isaiah 58:11
says: "The Lord will guide you always he will satisfy your needs in a sun
scorched land and will strengthen your frame." Psalm 37:23 says: "The steps
of a good man are ordered by the Lord..." Psalm 107:30 says: "..and He
guided them to their desired haven." If a person seeks the Lord on the
matters discussed in this and other issues of MJA, this writer believes the
Lord will give him or her wisdom, guidance, discernment and insight as to
what to do    or where to go as the foundations are being destroyed in
America and around the world (Psalm 11:3).
   This writer believes that one can understand the times in which we live,
make intelligent preparations for same, and yet not be anxious, fearful, or
afraid. As Isaiah 41:10 says: 'Fear thou not; for I am with thee; be not
dismayed; for I am thy God: I will strengthen thee; yea I will help thee;
yea I will uphold thee with the right hand of my righteousness." Deuteronomy
12:28 says:
"Observe and hear all these words which I command thee that it may go well
with thee, and with thy children after thee forever,; when thou doest that
which is good and right in the sight of the Lord thy God. "And finally,
Deuteronomy 31:6 says: "Be strong and courageous Do not be afraid or
terrified because of them, for the Lord your God goes with you; he will
never leave you nor forsake you. "And that is the bottom line!

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Y2K Update:

Putting Prudence into Practice by Gordon McDonald

No one likes to face the possibility of a catastrophic event. But the
implications to the health and well-being of our family and friends requires
us to entertain possibilities our fears would have us disregard. In other
areas of life we commonly prepare for these non-linearity's, while resisting
the practical implications of their occurrence. Most often, we call this
insurance.

  After having dealt with several issues in last  month's Y2K update, we
will try to stimulate your thinking on other topics. We trust, as always,
that all of your personal preparations are guided solely by the Spirit of
God and not by fear or vain logic.

  Not all of these subjects will pertain to everyone. And certainly there
will be, because of space and time, other topics not mentioned.  Share your
insights and discoveries with others. As in Acts Chapter 2, it may become
necessary for the Church to once again band together after all these years
of division.

Coin of the Realmal ways seems they are no more than "just enough." We
always seem to find ways of adjusting our life-style when more happens to
come along.

At whatever level you find yourself, it is time to assess what is
discretionary and what is necessary. You need to somehow carve out, in
whatever size, resources that can be set aside. For some this will seem
impossible, and for others the problem will be what to do with it all.
Those with  more should consider those with not enough.  The Bible quite
often talks of diversifying the risk to your resources. This method, while
costing something in the near term, does provide some protection against a
variety of negative scenarios.

It would be prudent to have a modest amount of cash on hand.  If the banks
start having trouble, it may become difficult to reach your money stored
there. Many people found during the Great Depression that this can happen
quickly.
  No matter how many resources Historically, in an economic the Lord has
blessed us with, it downturn, the value of hard currency such as gold and
silver has increased. Although the world in general, and the United States
in particular, has in recent times one away from these standards, they are
still thought of as secure resources in times of trouble.

In extended monetary crises, during which services are disrupted, a barter
system usually develops. The popular "currency" becomes various forms of
commodities. Toilet paper, disposable lighters, coffee, tea, sugar and, in
rural areas for hunting purposes, ammunition are good examples of storable
resources that would increase in value in times of distress.

It is important to remember that any of these "currencies" can be obtained
in relatively small and, presently, inexpensive quantities.

For those with retirement funds, IRAs, 4OlKs and resources of significant
size, as always, find a good financial advisor with a similar frame of
understanding for advice. What has been stated here is for no other purpose
than to stimulate your understanding and awareness of these important and
delicate issues.

All The Comforts Of Home

Although most certainly many of the effects of this crisis will be felt long
before January 1, 2000, it is safe to assume the worst of it will occur
immediately after the date change-in the middle of winter   For a small
portion of the population who live in warm climates, heating is not
necessarily a grave concern. But for most of us, that time of year requires
serious preparations to provide warmth to hearth and home.

With the utilities in possible disarray, such necessities as heat and light
can not be taken for granted.  Those located in densely populated areas have
fewer options in these regards, but they do have options.

Depending on where you live and your present source of heating, an analysis
of your present situation and possible  future needs will help you determine
the level of priority this area deserves.

If you have a fireplace, it may be prudent to install an airtight wood
stove. These, generally, are extremely efficient. Wood is easy to get and is
an inexpensive fuel source for heating.

Cold weather clothing, boots, sleeping bags and such items should be
obtained based on need and performance. To pay a little more for an
increased insulating efficiency will be greatly appreciated if cold
temperatures set in.

Closely associated in many areas with heating sources is power.  We have
previously talked at length about the severe risk to the power utility
companies due to Y2K. Nothing makes a home more comfortable-next to
warmth-as light~

  In the event of a power outage, backup electrical systems could eliminate
much of Y2K's impact.  Things such as refrigeration and cooking can be
accomplished with this type of resource. Candles, flashlights, batteries and
matches are vital items that can be stored at a minimal cost.

Parental Revenge

  It seems that parents spend much of their time encouraging their children
to develop a hunger for learning. Now they have their revenge.  After our
parents have been largely ignored, the Lord has created a situation in which
it is in our best interest to learn as much as we can as quickly as we can.

  The basics of life have, for the most part, been provided for us.  But the
computerized society in which we live has come at an expense.

  Much of the fundamental and basic knowledge of supplying our own needs has
receded to the public libraries. It is time to dust off these volumes and
regain the information and responsibilities we have abdicated.

  Because time is short, it would be wise to start acquiring, if you believe
it important, actual "hard-copy" books on various subjects of practical
concern.

  Subjects such as basic first aid, water purification techniques, wild game
butchering, auto repair, disposal of waste, the basics of electricity,
alternate communication methods, food preservation, and so on, would be good
candidates with which to start a well-rounded resource library.

  What you can't  learn now, you should at least have the information
available to learn later. You will feel much more confident with such
knowledge at hand.

Priority One

  The most important topic has been saved for last.

  Upon sharing much of the data on Y2K with you and others, we have been
criticized for causing unnecessary alarm.

  Although it can be argued there are times to be alarmed, it has never been
our intention to elicit this type of reaction. It was hoped the data would
stand or fall on its own. Our intentions were twofold. The first was to keep
you informed on what may turn out to be a pivotal moment in history. And
secondly, to start your thinking process in regards to preparation issues.

  It has been said that this could be the greatest opportunity for
ministering the Word of God in the last thousand years. A case could be made
that this period of time which is quickly coming upon us-is the greatest
ministry opportunity since the time of Jesus.

  That should be our sole purpose and focus.  The reason we prepare is to
give advantage to the Kingdom of God. Everything we are able to accomplish
besides that is "gravy."

  The  local churches and the pastors that   We live in exciting times.
Times that will prove our faith.  Holy men in times past have died longing
to see our day. They would have gladly given up their place in history to
see the culmination of all things.

If those resources are not in place when there was enough time, knowledge
and resources to do so, what is our answer to God's obvious question:  "Why
didn't you feed and clothe me?"

We as individuals not only have a responsibility to our families but to our
neighbors and anyone else in need.  Without exception.  To the exposing of
our own need.

We live in exciting times.  Times that will prove our faith.  Holy men in
times past have died longing to see our day.  They would have gladly given
up their place in history to see the culmination of all things.


  The Church and the world will need our help and the answers from the Lord
that comes with it.  It is not a time to be afraid. It is not a time to run
for the hills. It is not a time to become self-centered. It is a time to
prepare to reach out to a hungry, frightened, confused and desperate world.
Resources:
Internet:www.y2kinvestor.com ,www.y2knet.com ,www.yourdon.com
In addition to   these web sites, a  simple word search on any search engine
(yahoo, altavista, etc.) will provide you with ample opportunity for
"homework" in this area.

Books:

Stevens, James Talmage, Making the   Best ofBasics: Family Preparedness
Handbook, Gold Leaf Press, 1997.
  See page 28 for more information.

Yourdon, Edward and Jennifer, Time   Bomb 2000, Prentice Hall Computer Book,
1998. See the "Books" section   of the order form on page 24.

Back to Basics: How to Learn and Enjoy Traditional American Skills,
Readers Digest, 1997.

Encouraging The Serious Study of God's
Inerrant Word. Visit our Website at http://www.khouse.org

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WHEN ARMIES MOVE
A Dissertation on Armageddon from the Pre-wrath Perspective
By R. g. Wallace

Part One of Nine
INTRODUCTION

From AD 30 until the inception of the 70th week, there will exist in the
world, "wars and rumors of war" as the beginning of birth pains, especially
for the people of Israel (Dan. 9:26c; Mat. 24:4-8).
The Roman "prince who is to come" will bring a temporary end to that period
of warfare by establishing the covenant of peace and religious toleration
(Dan. 9:27a). For the sake of simplicity, I will designate this as
M.E.P.T.A. (the Middle East Peace and Tolerance Accord). The primary focus
of this covenant will be on the Middle East but probably extend world wide
as this world ruler promises peace and security to the people of the earth.
It is within this context that it can be said of Israel, she "has been
restored from the sword," (Ezek. 38:8). This time of peace continues for 3
1/2 years until the world ruler receives a fatal head wound, probably at the
hand of an assassin. This man will then be brought back to life by the power
of Satan in the eyes of all the world. It is this event that brings the
people of the world to his feet so that they elevate and honor him as a god.
Then through that same Satanic power, he begins to act out the wrath of
Satan toward God and God's people (Rev. 12:12-17; 13:3-7).

He begins by taking "his seat in the temple of God, displaying himself as
God" (2 Thes. 2:4), thus effectively breaking M.E.P.T.A. as he "puts a stop
to the sacrifices and grain offerings" the Jews were performing in the
temple (Dan. 9:27b). Jesus calls this the "abomination of desolation, spoken
of by Daniel the prophet (Dan. 12:11), standing in the Holy Place" (Mat.
24:15), which begins the great tribulation of oppression and persecution for
those who will not worship the beast (Mat. 24:9-29; Rev. 13:15-17).

Once this "beast out of the sea" of Revelation 13:1, begins his reign of
world dominion at the midpoint of the 70th week of Daniel, he promises
economic security to those who will worship him and take "the mark of the
beast." Thus, the world as a whole, will continue to proclaim "peace and
security" as they rejoice in the economic programs of the beast and are able
to participate in normal life activities without fear or distraction (1
Thes. 5:3; Mat. 24:38).

Jesus said that it will be for them "as in the days of Noah . . . eating and
drinking," etc. (Mat. 24:38), lulled to sleep by the economic security
provided through beast worship (Rev. 13:17).

The people and nations of the world continue to follow the beast as long as
he can fulfill his promise of "peace and security." But when least expected,
during this time of security (1 Thes. 5:2-3), and while the beast worshipers
are afflicting the believers (2 Thes. 1:6-7; Rev. 13:7a; Dan. 7:21), the Day
of the Lord will occur. (Mat. 24:29-31; Rev. 6:12-17)

1 Thessalonians 5:2-3
For you yourselves know full well that the day of the Lord
will come just like a thief in the night. While they are
saying, "Peace and safety!" then destruction will come upon
them suddenly like birth pangs upon a woman with child; and
they shall not escape.

2 Thessalonians 1:6-8
For after all it is just for God to repay with affliction
those who afflict you, and {to give} relief to you who are
afflicted and to us as well WHEN the Lord Jesus shall be
revealed from heaven with His mighty angels in flaming fire,
dealing out retribution to those who do not know God and to
those who do not obey the gospel of our Lord Jesus.

This "destruction" and repayment "with affliction" and "dealing out
retribution" takes place in 5 stages.

1. The trumpets stage: Divine judgment (fire) poured out on the
earth from the Day of the Lord arrival of Jesus until the end
of the week (a period that covers anywhere from 8 to 36 months
(Rev. 8-9).

2. The bowls stage: The final wrath of God poured out on the kingdom
of the beast during the 30-day period which immediately follows
the end of the 70th week. (Rev. 11:14-19; 15:1-16:21; Dan. 12:11)

3. The Armageddon stage: When Jesus comes physically down to the earth and
destroys the invading nations in Palestine, which takes place in connection
with the 6th and 7th bowl judgments. (Rev. 14:14-20; 16:12-21; 19:11-21)

4. The Separation stage: When the living unbelievers are removed from the
earth after Armageddon so that the physical kingdom of Christ (Millennium)
will begin with believers only.
A. The separation of sheep and goats (Mat. 25:31-46; 13:36-43, 47-50).
B. The separation of the fat and lean sheep of Israel
(Ezek. 34:17-24).

5. The eternal stage: Lake of fire (2 Thes. 1:9; Rev. 14:9-11; Rev.
20:11-15).

Once the Day of the Lord judgments begin to come upon the earth, the beast's
ability to provide peace and security will be greatly impeded.
Through trumpets 1-4, food supplies will be diminished, energy resources
will be diminished and many plagues and disasters will affect the nations
with the result that "many men died," (Rev. 8:11).

Through trumpet #5, the people of the world will be severely terrorized for
five months by the demon horde from the abyss and the beast will have no
control over the attack.

The 6th trumpet judgment is when the permissive will of God allows a kingdom
power to move in opposition to the beast and seek world domination. I
believe this to be the world-wide invasion of the king of the North which
will culminate in the final battle of Armageddon in Palestine (Rev.
9:13-19).


THE SIXTH TRUMPET

Rev. 9:13-15, And the sixth angel sounded, and I heard a voice from the four
horns of the golden altar which is before God, one saying to the sixth angel
who had the trumpet, "Release the four angels who are bound at the great
river Euphrates."

And the four angels, who had been prepared for the hour and day and month
and year, were released, so that they might kill a third of mankind.

These four angels have been functioning in a restraint operation from before
the time of John's writing until the present time. Whether they are elect or
fallen is not mentioned, nor does it matter. The main point is to recognize
that the general flow of history is controlled by God and nothing happens
except what he sovereignly permits (Daniel 4:17, 34-35). These angels have
been specially prepared for this specific time in human history to allow the
unrestricted advance of a military machine of the like the world had never
seen before (Joel 2:2).

Rev. 9:16
And the number of the armies of the horsemen
was two hundred million;
I heard the number of them.

The number designation of this army as it appears in the Greek (dismuriadoes
muriadon) literally means twice (or several) ten thousand times ten
thousand. It is suggested on the one hand to be a specific number of 200
million, and on the other hand to simply indicate an innumerable host. Many
commentators of the past have discounted the idea of "200 million," as being
quite impossible for any "then" known geographical area. However, in this
century, the clear reality of such numbers is no longer in question, whether
it be from the area of China or from a large alliance of nations which can
be associated with Russia.

DESCRIPTION OF THE ARMY

Rev. 9:17-19
And this is how I saw in the vision the horses and those who sat on
them: {the riders} had breastplates {the color} of fire and of
hyacinth and of brimstone; and the heads of the horses are like the
heads of lions; and out of their mouths proceed fire and smoke and
brimstone. A third of mankind was killed by these three plagues,
by the fire and the smoke and the brimstone,
which proceeded out of their mouths.
For the power of the horses is in their mouths and in their tails;
for their tails are like serpents and have heads;
and with them they do harm.

This is viewed by most scholars as describing a military machine from the
perspective of modern mechanized weaponry.
Notice the similarity found at Joel 2:3-4,
"A fire consumes before them, And behind them a flame burns.
The land is like the garden of Eden before them,
But a desolate wilderness behind them,
And nothing at all escapes them.
Their appearance is like the appearance of horses;
And like war horses, so they run."

It is in fact, the view of this writer, that the army of the 6th trumpet is
the Northern army which is described at Ezekiel 38-39 and Joel 2:1-20.

ORIENTATION

First point of orientation is to recognize that the understanding of this
invasion has nothing to do with the timing of the rapture. Therefore, the
pretrib, midtrib, pre-wrath and posttrib positions are not pertinent to this
study. However, this discussion will be flavored by definitions in
terminology characteristic of the pre-wrath view of the rapture.

The second point of orientation is to recognize that in the book of The
Revelation, the seven seals, trumpets and bowls follow one upon the other in
chronological order. Specifically, that the seven trumpets come out from the
7th seal and that the seven bowls come out from the 7th trumpet which sounds
immediately after the ascension of the two witnesses, 1263 1/2 days after
the midpoint of the week (Rev.
11:7-15). And that there is a 30 day period which follows the end of the
70th week, as indicated at Daniel 12:11, during which the seven bowls will
be poured out upon the earth.

The third point of orientation is to recognize that the 6th trumpet takes
place toward the end of the 70th week, as is also acknowledged by John F.
Walvoord:
"Chronologically the trumpets involved closely succeed one another
and their judgments seem to fall like trip-hammer blows as the great
tribulation comes to its close."
(The Revelation of Jesus Christ, page 166).

In the articles to follow, I will guide you through every Old Testament
passage that has major contributions to make concerning the Armageddon
campaign. If nothing else, it will assist those who have a skeleton-scenario
in their mind of these events to confirm and/or challenge your
understanding.

Grace and Peace --

End of Part One
ronw@biblefragrances.com
http://www.biblefragrances.com
************************************
PROPHEZINE NEWSBYTES
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook June 12, 1998
Volume 3, No. 23
Bob Cohen, Editor               bcohen@itaa.org

Bennett Hearing Finds Y2K Disclosure Lacking

If public companies really understand the extent of their Year 2000
exposure, many are not saying so.  At least that appears to be the
conclusion of a hearing held this week by Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) and his
Subcommittee on Financial Services and Technology.  Although Bennett said
the stock market has replaced real estate as America's "nest egg," the
information being provided by numerous public companies on the status of
their Y2K efforts is coming up goose eggs.

Is public disclosure on Y2K in danger of becoming one big yolk?

Sen. Bennett said that revised Security and Exchange Commission (SEC)
guidelines to provoke more meaningful Year 2000 information from public
companies has had a limited impact and said he is disappointed with the
results to date.

Appearing before the subcommittee, SEC Commissioner Laura Unger shared some
of Bennett's dissatisfaction.   According to Unger, "the quantity of
disclosures is up, the quality is not."  In her testimony, Unger tried to
unscramble some of the confusion about the Commission's disclosure
expectations.  The issue is whether companies consider Y2K "material" to
their operations, either because costs incurred to address the situation
might cause reported financial information "to be not necessarily indicative
of future operating results," or  because the "cost or consequences of
incomplete or untimely resolution" constitutes a material event which could
be "reasonably expected" to affect future results or the accuracy of
financial information.

Referring to an SEC Staff Legal Bulletin revised last January, Unger said
that the Commission provided guidance on determining whether or not Y2K
should be considered material.  According to Unger, "If a company has not
made an assessment of its Year 2000 issues or has not determined whether it
has material Year 2000 issues, the staff states that the company must
disclose this known uncertainty.  In addition, the staff states that the
determination as to whether a company should disclose its Year 2000 issues
should be based on whether these issues would be material to a company's
business, operations, or financial condition irrespective of any remediation
plans or insurance coverage."
If companies find Y2K is material, the SEC wants to know "the nature and
potential impact of these issues as well as the countervailing
circumstances."  Unger said disclosure should include general plans to
address the issue as it pertains to business, operations and, as
appropriate, relationships with suppliers, customers and other constituents.
Disclosure should include the schedule for conducting the plan, an estimate
of Y2K costs and an assessment of the material impact of such expenditures
on operations, liquidity and capital resources.  Boilerplate disclosures are
to be avoided, Unger said, and information updated quarterly.

Although Unger said that 70 percent of companies now include the term "Year
2000" in their annual reports, she indicated that most are still walking on
eggshells when it comes to making meaningful statements.  "The Commission is
concerned," she said, "that while a greater number of companies mention Year
2000 in their annual reports, much of the disclosure is not informative.
Perhaps many companies are not providing the type of disclosure specified in
Staff Legal Bulletin No. 5 because companies are concerned that
forward-looking disclosures would be a lightening rod for the plaintiffs'
bar."
Unger said an SEC review of annual reports filed by more than 1000 public
companies found many not following the Commission's guidance for disclosure.
The SEC results indicate that 65 percent of companies are either just
starting or are in the process of determining the seriousness of the problem
if no corrective action is taken.  Forty-three percent failed to describe
plans to remedy the situation.  Sixty-four percent failed to provide a
timetable for correction.  Fifty-one percent did not describe material
relationships with outside parties.  Ninety-two percent made no mention of
amounts spent to date.  Seventy-eight percent failed to discuss future Y2K
expenditures.  Eight-six percent said the Year 2000 is either not material
as to repair costs or operations or made no disclosure on materiality.

The SEC official said that the Commission will publish an interpretive
release in the near future to "formalize current staff guidance...[and]
remedy the apparent misconception that the Year 2000 issue is
material...only if the costs of remediation are material.  The interpretive
release will clarify that companies must, in addition to considering costs,
determine materiality based on the potential consequences of inadequately
resolving their Year 2000 issues."  She said the forthcoming release may
also form the basis of Commission enforcement actions against companies that
fail to make adequate disclosures.

Hearing Lights Up Y2K Power Grid Issue The Senate Special Committee on the
Year 2000 held its first public hearing today and released results of a
survey that may dim the lights of the more sanguine Y2K prognosticators.
The survey of the ten largest oil, gas and utilities companies found only 20
percent had completed their assessments of automated systems.   Four of
these firms were not able to identify how many embedded systems they have in
service.  One firm that had done its counting reported over 300,000 systems
in service.  The Committee survey found that these firms are not confident
of their completeness or accuracy of assessments to date, "making assurances
of timely Y2K compliance little more than a hope."  Moreover, the Committee
finds that the utilities' "ignorance" of supplier and vendor status creates
"additional uncertainty for utility consumers."  None of the companies
surveyed had contingency plans completed.

"I am genuinely concerned about the very real prospects of power shortages
as a consequence of the millennial date change," said Committee Chairman Bob
Bennett (R-UT).   The chairman also expressed his concern that the Y2K
issues is igniting so little spark with the general public.  "I am concerned
that when it does become a matter of general public concern it will be too
late to bring public pressure to bear on the timely correction of the many
Y2K problems that exist.  My greatest fear is that when it does become a
matter of general public conern, it will bring with it a measure of panic
that will be deterimental to effective and efficient remediation..."
"If tomorrow [were] January 1, 2000, it would be a 100 percent fact the
power grid would fail...there's no question about it," Bennett said.

Witnesses at the hearing were Department of Energy (DOE) Deputy Secretary
Elizabeth Moler, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chairman James
Hoecker, Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Shirley Ann Jackson, Y2K
Czar John Koskinen, Consultant Lou Marcoccia, North America Electric
Reliability Council (NERC) President Michehl Gent, Electric Power Research
Institute Y2K Program Manager Charles Siebenthal, Sonat Inc. Executive Vice
President James Rubright, and Gary Gardner, CIO, American Gas Association.

Government officials appearing before the Committee generally described
themselves as facilitating private sector action on the issue. "Let me
emphasize that the Federal government cannot solve this problem," DOE Deputy
Secretary Elizabeth Moler said.  FERC Chairman James Hoecker said the Year
2000 is an "unusal challenge" for his agency because "the Commission does
not exercise direct authority over these kinds of internal operations within
regulated energy companies...The Commission's role is primarily to act as a
facilitator and advocate, not regulator, on the Year 2000 matter."

One of the primary focus points for action will be the network of
interconnected electricity systems.  NERC coordinates the reliability and
adequacy of bulk electric systems in North America and NERC President
Michehl Gent said "A major disturbance within one part of an Interconnection
has the potential to cascade through the entire Interconnection.  He added,
however, that the loss of a facility or two would not trigger such a
cascading effect.  Rather, he said, the problem, if it comes, will take the
shape of common mode failures "such as all generator protection relays of a
particular model failing simultaneously, or the coincident loss of multiple
facilities..."  He called the possibility of such events extremely low, but
conceivable.

He also pointed out that an individual electric utility investing big bucks
in its Y2K correction could see its investment trip over the less than
diligent efforts of neighboring systems.  Gent said the greatest Y2K threats
for the electricity supply are power plants with digital controls, energy
management systems used to operate transmission facilities and control
generating units, telecommunications, and relay protection devices.

Gent called maintaining the operability of bulk electric systems perhaps
"the single most important step toward supporting our North American
infrastructure during the Y2K transition."   NERC's "defense-in-depth
strategy" involves identifying and fixing known problems, sharing
information on known and suspected problems, creating a master list of Y2K
problem areas, initiating a progress reporting process, regional and
individual system simulations to identify moderate and worst-case scenarios,
coordinating development of operational preparedness and contingency plans
and coordinating efforts to operate transmission and generation facilities
in precautionary configurations and loadings during critical Y2K periods.

Gent seemed to get charged up by the notion that some companies may be
holding back on their Y2K information.  "The success of the NERC Y2K program
depends on unbridled cooperation, full sharing of Y2K information, and
diligence of effort commensurate with the potential consequences of failing
to adequately prepare for Y2K," he said.  Later, he added, "Public exchange
of information is a cornerstone of NERC's Y2K program and must not be viewed
by utility participants as feeding information to potential litigants....Any
restraint in sharing known Y2K problems and solutions will be a direct
challenge to the reliability of the electricity supply."
He also took on the Chairman's "what if Y2K were tomorrow" formulation.  "I
have to take issue with the stated 100 percent failure rate of utilities,"
Gent said, "I know of several companies that have run tests of their
systems."  Referring to the fact that the date change will make its way
through several time zones before reaching the U.S., Gent said, "We have an
excellent communication system, and we can take advantage of the natural
time-lag to see and monitor what is happening."
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) queried the government witnesses on the lack of a
comprehensive assessment on the status of the grid.  Some of the government
executives acknowledged that such an assessment does not exist.  Y2K Czar
John Koskinen said that the government has no regulatory authority to demand
this information, and he does not propose that the federal government be
granted the power to obtain it.  Rather, Koskinen said the utilities should
be informed that government is ready to work with them.  "Time is the
vanishing resource," he said.

Y2K appears to be generating a significant amount of electricity among
Washington lobbyists.  The hearing drew an overflow crowd, forcing Committee
staff to open a second room to handle the crowd.

Speaker Says Y2K will Bug White House House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
suggested this week that the Year 2000 date issue could be a significant
barrier in Vice President Gore's bridge to the White House in the next
presidential election.  As first reported by Newsbytes, Gingrich said
nothing could be "more destructive for Gore's political future than to talk
about the information superhighway" while the "largest wreck in history"
occurs on January 1, 2000.

California CIO Says Y2K Costs Likely to Double Speaking today at an
ITAA-produced Y2K seminar in Santa Clara, CA, California CIO John Thomas
Flynn predicted that the Golden State will be spending more gold than
expected on its Y2K correction.  He estimated that the current $243 million
budget will grow to over $500 million before the last bad date is purged
from the state's information systems.  Flynn said that half of the state's
3000 systems are impacted by the date change issue, and half this 1500 are
considered mission critical.   He said that the state appropriated an
additional $55 million in Y2K fix-it funds this year, and Flynn said he was
disappointed that $4 million of this total went unclaimed by state agencies.

Despite the anticipated increase in Y2K expenditures, Flynn said he is
sticking by the state's completion schedule, with all mission critical
systems due to be done by the end of this year.  He called the deadline
ambitious but doable.  Testing, he said, is  proving difficult and some
software considered ready for testing has been sent back to the bench for
additional repairs.

Flynn mentioned other California government initiatives, including a task
force of state officials meeting regularly with municipal and county
counterparts on the issue.  Noting that the state's level of contingency
planning is in need of work, Flynn said his Department of Information
Technology has created a contingency planning template for use by other
state agencies.

California Assemblyman Mike Honda (D) also spoke at the seminar and said he
has introduced two Y2K-related measures.  AB 2458 would provide a 20 percent
tax credit to small businesses grappling with the Millennium Bug.  He said
the measure has generated an apathetic response from the state's Chamber of
Commerce.  The Assemblyman has also introduced AB 1934, a bill to create
incentives for organizations acting responsibly in their Y2K repairs; he
said he solicits input on the measure.

For more information, please send email to info@y2kplus.com, visit our web
site at http://www.y2kplus.com or call Dave Ehlke at 781-863-8111.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
FBI UNIT REPORTS 'SUBSTANTIAL' CYBER ATTACKS

(Source Wash)Reuters June 11, 1998 7:28 AM PT

WASHINGTON --It was reported to a Senate panel on Wednesday by the head of a
new U.S. cyber law enforcement agency the that a "half dozen" substantial
attacks had been launched since February against U.S. government computer
systems.


Refusing to elaborate, Michael Vatis, the chief of the National
Infrastructure Protection Center (NIPC) of the FBI, said pending
investigations prevented him.

Lawmakers asked how many of the computer attacks he had witnessed since
February.... when the NIPC was created,-- were considered "substantial" and
separate from routine computer"hacker" attacks.

Vatis told the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism and
Government Information."I would say somewhere in the vicinity of a half
dozen of what I would consider substantial, ones that we are still
investigating to determine in fact whether they are significant or whether
they're really part of the noise that exists almost everyday

The Senate subcommittee met to hear from administration officials about the
latest steps to counter attacks on critical U.S. computer infrastructure.

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the ranking Democrat on the panel, asked
Vatis if the half dozen or so substantial attacks involved military
computers at the Department of Defense (DOD). Vatis would not respond
directly, citing the probes, but stressed that DOD was always a target.

"Because DOD is such a prime target for even individual hackers who want to
test their skills, a good percentage of the incidents we see all the time
involve DOD. They see the Department of Defense as the big banana, the final
exam, the ultimate challenge to test their skills," Vatis said.

Senators were also briefed on last year's DOD exercise, code-named "Eligible
Receiver," which exposed U.S. vulnerabilities to cyber attack.

Early warning system The NIPC was formed in response to concerns about the
safety of national computer systems and charged to detect, deter, warn,
respond to and investigate unlawful acts involving intrusions and other
threats against vital infrastructures.

Arizona Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, the subcommittee chairman, said the U.S.
should gird for a cyber attack against military computers with the same
urgency as the military prepared for more traditional physical attacks.

"Today, because of the networked nature of our critical infrastructures our
enemies needn't risk attacking our strong military if they can much more
easily attack our soft digital underbelly," Kyl said.

President Clinton on May 22 signed two directives designed to strengthen
defenses against terrorism and other unconventional threats, and formed
working groups of public and private groups to work on a coordinated
strategy.

Terrorist threat Administration studies showed that an attack by a foreign
government or group, or domestic terrorists, could not only harm military
operations but disrupt banking and finance, create power outages, interrupt
transportation nodes and crash entire communications networks.

Vatis said some of the immediate issues under discussion were efforts to
determine budget requirements, create an attack detection and warning
system, determine legal authority and legislative requirements and devise a
cohesive intelligence collection process.

In late February, the Pentagon and FBI investigated a series of successful
efforts by computer "hackers" to obtain information from military computers.
The break-ins came at the same time U.S. forces were being marshaled for a
possible attack on Iraq.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Rankings of Y2K Experts
By Dennis Elenburg and Russ Kelly
I received the Y2k expert ranking information in a forwarded email from a
Y2k Weatherman subscriber.  I attempted to verify these rankings by
contacting all the Y2k experts listed below.  I later discovered that this
information comes from Russ Kelly's website.
(Special thanks to Gary North for pointing this out to me.)

You can go to the source of this information here:

http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html
The info below is a bit different from Russ Kelly's website.  I didn't
include all the same people he does.  I asked Roleigh Martin and Harlan
Smith to add their rankings to the list, so you won't find them on Russ
Kelly's site until he updates it.  Roleigh and Harlan are two highly
qualified experts on the embedded system problem.  Also, Adam Kaplan sent me
an update (added .5 to his ranking).  I'll update this post in the Y2k
Weatherman Report Archive and notify you of changes in the email reports if
anyone raises or lowers their ranking.

Archived at http://y2kwatch.com/showart.php3?idx=69&rtn=y2kman.htm

Here is the intro from Russ Kelly's site:

Below is a list of individuals that are the most widely quoted authorities
on "Year 2000" issues.  A short biographical background is given for each
individual when available.

Rankings are based on the extensive monitoring of the forums, web sites,
newsletters, published articles and books, and in many cases, personal
contact with the individuals, by Russ Kelly (and Dennis Elenburg too). In
some cases, the individuals ranked themselves.

The purpose of the rankings is so that we can monitor the "seriousness"
trend. It is mostly of academic interest where we are at the moment. What is
of critical importance, is the direction we are going. Is it getting better,
or is it getting worse? Have we waited too long to get it all done, or is
the "undone" really unimportant after all?

Overall Ranking average:  7.27

And the rankings are...
---

David Starr. Ranking of problem- 1.
Chief Information Officer of Readers Digest.

[Note from the Y2k Weatherman:  Incredibly, a lot of CIO's are in the same
"head in the sand" boat.  That is why we have such a big problem on our
hands.  However, if Reader's Digest goes out of business our global
infrastructure won't collapes, so I don't see Mr. Starr's lack of vision
being much of an issue unless you happen to be employed by Reader's Digest.
Worst case is a few people might panic for lack of reading material to stack
on the back of their toilet.]
---
Dr. Leon Kappleman. Ranking of problem- 6.
Associate Professor at Univ. of North Texas, Chair and Co-Chair of Computer
and Year 2000 groups.  (http://www.year2000.unt.edu/kappelma/)
---
Alan Simpson. Ranking of problem- 8.
Author. Information Technology executive.  International broadcaster and
speaker. Satellite communications pioneer.
(http://www.comlinks.com/)
---
Gary North. Ranking of problem- 10.
Historian (Ph.D. in history) prolific author.  No known information
technology background.  (http://www.garynorth.com/)
Statement from Gary (June 1998): "The litmus test of 10 status -- the far
end of the spectrum -- is one's opinion on the survivability of the power
grid.  This is where the target stops moving. You don't need to grade on a
curve anymore.  Anyone who says the entire grid will go down for 60 days
rates a 10. I say I see no reason why it won't fail, but I do not predict a
sure thing.  I can be displaced by someone who says it's a sure thing,
unless I match his bid. But raising it to 6
months or 6 years won't affect 10 status; 60 days is enough to shut down the
West."
---

Adam Kaplan. Ranking of problem- 7.
Editor of Westergaard Year 2000 (http://www.y2ktimebomb.com), a
daily-updated Internet publication offering a strategic analysis of the Y2K
Problem.  At Westergaard Year 2000, leading Y2K experts from all over the
world write regular feature articles in the areas of Y2K that matter most--
the economy, the international dimensions of the Problem, Washington, the
legal aspects, and more.
---

Ed Yourdon. Ranking of problem- 8.
Prolific author, 30 year programming pioneer, B.S. in applied mathmatics
from MIT.  (http://www.yourdon.com/)
---

Russ Kelly. Ranking of problem- 8.
35 year software development pioneer, speaker on year 2000 issues, editor of
"Kelly's Year 2000 Digest", and weekly radio talk show host of "Year 2000
and You."  (http://www.russkelly.com/)
---

Peter de Jager. Ranking of problem- 6.
Canadian. Advisor to several government task force groups.  Frequent speaker
to U.S. house and senate technology committees. 6 years dedicated to y2k
issues. (http://www.year2000.com/)
Statement from Peter (June 1998): "The Y2k Problem is real.  If unfixed, it
will cause chaos.  Treated with the respect it deserves, Y2k can be solved
sufficiently to avoid chaos and merely be painful."
---

Dr. Ed Yardeni. Ranking of problem- 8.
Doctorate in Economics from Yale.  Present and former Chief Economist for
several leading Wall Street firms. Highly regarded for his past accuracy in
predicting economic conditions.
(http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html)
---

Scott Olmsted. Ranking of problem- 8.
Doctorate in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford. 20 year software
veteran. (http://www.prepare4y2k.com/)
Statement from Scott (June 1998): "Y2K at best will cause intermittent
interruptions of goods and services followed by a recession, and at worst
will bring much of the world economy to a virtual halt, with failures at
every level, including government, banking, shipping, and utilities,
resulting in tremendous hardship for most Americans.  There is simply no way
to know with any certainty how it will unfold. The possible bad outcomes are
so great, however, that it is rational to prepare for at least some of
them."
---

Joe Boivin. Ranking of problem- 9.5.
Canadian, Year 2000 banking and management expert. Former Director of Year
2000 program for Canada's second largest bank (CIBC). President of the
Global Millennium Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan, organization
committed to developing national and global level solutions to the Year 2000
technological crisis.
(http://www.globalmf.org)
---

Roleigh Martin.  Ranking of problem- 5 to 9.
Master of Arts in Sociology, 21 years in Data Processing, Writer and Speaker
on the Y2K Embedded Systems Threat, Webmaster,
(http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin)
Statement from Roleigh (June 1998):  "The ranking depends on how remediated
and/or prepared your geographical region is for whatever happens; those who
are will probably painfully survive through it suffering a "5" level average
set of problems; those regions, including outside the USA, who are very
poorly remediated and are not prepared, some of them will suffer a "9" level
average set of problems.  The only reason the range does not include 10 is
that 10 is defined as universal and I see it as "spotty."  The reason I did
not include numbers less than 5 is that some impacts will affect all
communities regardless of their preparations, such as fuel shortages, stock
market decline, etc."
---

Harlan Smith. Ranking of Problem- 7.5.
Electronics engineer (retired) with 36 years experience of working on
  complex military radar systems.  Author of "Synergistic Mitigation and
Contingency Preparation" (http://2000.jbaworld.com/people/smith_h.htm)
Statement from Harlan (June 1998):  "My first priority is to encourage
governments around the world to stop talking about the year 2000
problem and get on with solving it.  The US was one of the first to get
going on the problem however, their strategy seems to be "full remediation"
i.e. lets try and fix everything in time.  What needs fixing?  Basically the
infrastructure we rely on each day from power plants and rail roads to
defense.  Our biggest problem is time.  We don't have enough for full
remediation - so should we give up?  No -
the answer is to identify the minimum requirements from our infrastructure
(global triage), and then work towards building this austere infrastructure
and supplement it with contingency plans."
---

Dennis Elenburg  Ranking of problem- 7.77.
No-name grunt Y2k project manager for a major telco and author of the
preparedness focused "Y2k Weatherman Report." (http://Y2kWatch.com/)
Statement from Dennis (June 1998):  "I'm optimistic that most basic
utilities and services (other than government) affected by Y2k will come
back online before the dreaded Y2k leap year of 2/29/00.  My main concerns
are (1) electrical power (especially nuclear generated in other countries),
(2) telecommunications (voice and data) and, (3) the almost certain
financial holocaust (which may occur b/f Y2k).  If the "iron triangle" of
electrical power, telecom, and banks goes down hard and stays down, then my
ranking will jump to 10.  My optimistic economic forecast, even if the "iron
triangle" survives, is economic hardship on par with the 1930s Great
Depression." ==

* Dennis Elenburg, "The Y2K Weatherman" <delenburg@y2kwatch.com *

*  Get your free Y2K Weatherman Reports:  http://y2kwatch.com/   *
*  Is Y2k really a problem?  Do you really need to be prepared?  *
*  Send a blank email to <whyprepare@lookup.org for more info.  *
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pentagon Faulted on Year 2000 Reports
Investigators Find Unreliable Accounting of Computer System Compliance
By Stephen Barr Washington Post Staff Writer Friday, June 12, 1998; Page A25

When it comes to computers and the Year 2000 glitch, the Pentagon's
compliance checklist doesn't always produce compliance.

An investigation by the Defense Department's inspector general found that
computer system managers turned in reports listing critical technology
systems as ready to accurately process and calculate dates in the next
century even though the systems had not received such certification.

The prospect of incorrect information in the Year 2000, or Y2K, progress
reports has raised concerns about the integrity of the process used by top
Pentagon and White House officials to track computer repairs and to make
contingency plans for any possible technology crisis on Jan. 1, 2000.

"Senior DOD management cannot afford to make Y2K program decisions based on
highly inaccurate information," the office of the inspector general
concluded in its report on the matter. "If DOD does not take the action that
it needs to obtain accurate information as to the status of its Y2K efforts,
we believe that serious Y2K failures may occur in DOD mission-critical
information technology systems."
Rep. Stephen Horn (R-Calif.) raised the report at a House subcommittee
hearing Wednesday on Year 2000 computer repairs. "I thought we were past the
days of the Vietnam body count," Horn said as he inquired about Pentagon
plans for "improved honesty of compliance."

William A. Curtis, a retired Army combat officer recruited by the Pentagon
60 days ago to shape up its Year 2000 computer repair program, did not
dispute the findings.

"We have got to have the most accurate data . . . and not be shooting the
messenger," Curtis told Horn.

Curtis and Sally Brown, a Defense official involved in Y2K compliance
efforts, said they did not believe system managers were trying to
intentionally mislead superiors on Y2K progress.

The Year 2000 problem stems from the use in many computers of a two-digit
dating system that assumes that "1" and "9" are the first two digits of the
year. Without specialized reprogramming, the systems will recognize "00" not
as 2000 but 1900, which could cause computers to shut down or malfunction.

Overall, the Pentagon is running at least four months behind schedule on its
timetable for Year 2000 computer fixes and estimates that it will spend
about $1.9 billion on the problem. The department has about 25,000 computer
systems, with about 2,800 designated as "mission critical."
They include command and control, satellite, inventory management,
transportation management, medical and equipment, and pay and personnel
systems.

At the Defense Department, Year 2000 policies say that computer users cannot
assume a system will successfully operate in the next century until it has
been certified by a system manager. A computer system is not certified until
the system manager signs a Y2K compliance checklist, the inspector general's
report said.

Defense officials could not provide documents to show they had followed
proper procedures when the office of the inspector general sampled 430
computer systems that the Pentagon had reported as Year 2000 compliant in
November 1997. The office of inspector general found that using a
statistical model, the office concluded "that between 265 and 338 systems
were not certified," although the systems had been reported to senior
management as certified.

In addition, investigators found that "the existence of a completed and
signed Y2K compliance checklist did not always mean that the system was Y2K
compliant."   They did not identify the systems by name or function, but the
computers were reportedly being used by large Defense agencies, such as the
Army, the Air Force, the Finance and Accounting Service, the Special Weapons
Agency and the Defense Logistics Agency.

The report, issued last month, underscores the problems federal agencies
face as they try to define such terms as "Y2K compliant" and "Y2K ready."

For example, the Agriculture Department, recently reported 15 systems as
compliant, even though they were only in developmental stages , said Joel C.
Willemssen of the General Accounting Office.

In the Pentagon's case, the report from the office of the inspector general
said the department's Year 2000 management plan did not clearly describe the
certification process or the specific requirements for systems managers.

"The word certified had so many different kinds of meanings that it had lost
all its meaning," Brown said yesterday.

A new management plan will be published within the next few days to clarify
procedures and expectations, Curtis said. Some Defense agencies also have
decided that it is no longer appropriate for only one person to sign off on
a certification and now require senior managers to participate in the
decision, he added.

To help accelerate its repair effort, Curtis said, the Pentagon plans to set
up a High Risk Systems Board to oversee each computer system in Y2K jeopardy
and will form a 250-person evaluation force to independently validate the
fixes and testing for the Pentagon's most important systems.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
BBC Online Network
Gallery of Liverpool Museum and used to chart the positions of the sun, moon
and planets.  Built around 1600, it works by calculating times on a dateline
inscribed into stone surrounds.  The origin and maker of the Equatorium is
unknown as the instrument contains no identifiable markings.

Whoever did invent it apparently did not ever imagine it would still be in
use almost four centuries later. They decided to finish the timeline at the
year 2000.

Museum staff are at a loss as there appears to be no way of altering the
device and extending its lifespan.  The curator of Earth and Physical
Sciences at Liverpool Museum, Martin Suggett, said:
"It's a little sad to think the working life of this 400-year-old totally
unique instrument comes to a close in 18 months.

"I find it extraordinary to think of the vision of the maker who made sure
the instrument could be used 400 years into the future.  "But now those 400
years are coming to an end. He must have been the first person to put the
millennium bug into a piece of equipment."

Mr Suggett said there are still a number of unanswered questions surrounding
the instrument.  "We have no idea who made it or where it was made -
possibly England or France," he added.

He said they believe the instrument - donated to the museum from the
collection of Joseph Mayer, a goldsmith from Wirral who bought it in 1869 -
was constructed around 1600 and is unique of its type, the nearest
equivalent being in Oxford.

The Liverpool version is the only one to take in changes dating from after
the time of Copernicus, the renowned 16th Century Polish
astronomer.nd...thanks.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++
400-Year-Old Device Hit By Millennium Bug
BBC Online Network
Gallery of Liverpool Museum and used to chart the positions of the sun, moon
and planets.  Built around 1600, it works by calculating times on a dateline
inscribed into stone surrounds.  The origin and maker of the Equatorium is
unknown as the instrument contains no identifiable markings.

Whoever did invent it apparently did not ever imagine it would still be in
use almost four centuries later. They decided to finish the timeline at the
year 2000.

Museum staff are at a loss as there appears to be no way of altering the
device and extending its lifespan.  The curator of Earth and Physical
Sciences at Liverpool Museum, Martin Suggett, said:
"It's a little sad to think the working life of this 400-year-old totally
unique instrument comes to a close in 18 months.

"I find it extraordinary to think of the vision of the maker who made sure
the instrument could be used 400 years into the future.  "But now those 400
years are coming to an end. He must have been the first person to put the
millennium bug into a piece of equipment."

Mr Suggett said there are still a number of unanswered questions surrounding
the instrument.  "We have no idea who made it or where it was made -
possibly England or France," he added.

He said they believe the instrument - donated to the museum from the
collection of Joseph Mayer, a goldsmith from Wirral who bought it in 1869 -
was constructed around 1600 and is unique of its type, the nearest
equivalent being in Oxford.

The Liverpool version is the only one to take in changes dating from after
the time of Copernicus, the renowned 16th Century Polish
astronomer.nd...thanks.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Year 2000 Bug? What's That? Say 38% In US Survey
FRAMINGHAM, MASSACHUSETTS, U.S.A., 1998 JUN 12 (NB)
By Craig Menefee, Newsbytes.

CIO magazine has completed a survey that indicates more than a
third of US residents have never heard of the Year 2000 bug. Of those who
have, says the magazine, four out of five shrug it off as a technical
problem that technical types will no doubt solve before a crisis happens.

Unlike earlier CIO surveys, this one covered regular citizens people instead
of information technology (IT) professionals. CIO publisher Gary J. Beach
says he found some of the results stunning.

Most troubling, Beach told Newsbytes, was that more than half (52 percent)
of the respondents, including those who shrug off the problem, said if it
isn't solved by mid-1999, they will move their money around. A full quarter
said they would simply put it under their mattress until the Y2K events are
over.

"Think about half of the assets of the US middle class being moved around,
and half of that taken out of the system completely over a period of six
months," Beach mused. "It would be a disaster. I certainly hope the bankers
are thinking about it, because the ice here is not very thick."  Beach warns
that if US citizens decide the Y2K problem cannot be fixed in time -- a
likelihood that IT professionals now largely acknowledge --the result could
be a run on banks to put the 1930s local banking panics to shame.

The publisher thinks Vice President Al Gore should tell citizens the
problems are inevitable but non-catastrophic. Gore, says Beach, will take
the brunt of the pressure in the event of catastrophic problems anyway,
because he is identified by voters as President Bill Clinton's "technology
guy."

That identification has its downside. Beach says 55 percent of those
surveyed say Gore's presidential ambitions will be in trouble if Y2K bugs
cause too many crashes. By comparison, in a CIO study of IT professionals,
only 43 percent thought crashes would put the vice president's candidacy in
peril.

"The problem is, Gore's handlers don't want to make him the Year 2000
digital poster boy," Beach remarked. "I happen to know the plan now is for
President Clinton to talk to the nation about it soon, but that doesn't make
sense to me.  The administration's 'technology guy' ought to handle it."

To do the research, First Market Research of Austin, Texas contacted 643
people age 18 or over by telephone. The questions were developed by CIO's
fellow IDG unit International Data Corp. IDC says the margin of error was
2.2 percent to 5.0 percent within a 95 percent confidence level.

For more on CIO and its periodic polls, see http://www.cio.com .
Reported by Newsbytes News Network: http://www.newsbytes.com .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
F.Y.I. - Israel in the News
Week Ending: June 13, 1998/19 Sivan 5758
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"And the multitude of all the nations who wage war against Ariel
[Jerusalem], even all who wage war against her and her stronghold, and who
distress her, hall be like a dream, a vision of the night." Isaiah 29.7
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CLINTON KEEPS UP THE PRESSURE: US President Clinton has reportedly urged
Israel to end internal squabbling over the interim agreement with the
Palestinian Authority (PA/PLO), implement it, and start holding permanent
status talks. ISRAEL RADIO said this week Clinton raised these points with
Israel's ambassador to the UN, Dore Gold. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
says he is trying to reach an agreement with the US over the third stage of
the Israeli pullback. Israel is seeking a US safety net in case of a
confrontation with the PA/PLO.

In another report, according to American sources, the US is no longer
attempting to define the size of the third Israeli redeployment, which
Washington had proposed as part of a package deal including a second
redeployment and the start of permanent status talks, the JERUSALEM POST
reported. Instead, a less binding formula is being considered in which
Israel would convey to the US the scope of the third pullback, but this
figure would not be subject to Palestinian approval, the sources said. The
sources confirmed that one idea discussed with Netanyahu was a second and
third redeployment totaling 15 percent.
(UPI/MED, ISRAEL LINE)

ANTI-WITHDRAWAL FORCES GEAR UP: A critical meeting was held in the Binyamin
community of Givon Hachadasha this past Sunday night, in which concrete and
practical decisions were made for the future of what the participants call
"the struggle for the Land of Israel". Taking part in the meeting were Land
of Israel front chairman MK (Member of Knesset) Michael Kleiner, Beit El
Mayor Uri Ariel, Yaakov Katz (Katzeleh) of the new Tekumah movement, and
representatives of the Religious Kibbutz movement, non-religious kibbutzim,
Gamla Shall Not Fall Again, and others. Several significant decisions were
made, based on the premise that the bodies that worked to bring Netanyahu to
power will now work in
the same framework to topple him if he attempts to withdraw from Yesha.

Deputy Education Minister Moshe Peled and Knesset Members Eli Gabbai and
Avner Shaki of the National Religious Party join coalition MKs Porat, Begin,
Kleiner, Hendel, Slomiansky and others who have come out publicly in favor
of toppling the government in the event of a withdrawal. Former chief rabbi
and NRP religious leader Avraham Shapira has told PM Netanyahu that he will
not change his directive that Knesset members and ministers of the National
Religious Party withdraw from the coalition if the cabinet decides on a 13
percent second withdrawal. Shapira said he could not change an opinion based
on Torah and halacha, Jewish religious law, for mere political expediency.
Shapira also asked Netanyahu to refrain from pressuring rabbis and to stand
strong against domestic and international pressures trying to convince him
to carry out the second redeployment. (ARUTZ SHEVA, HA'ARETZ)

ARAFAT OFFERS HAMAS CABINET POSITIONS: PA/PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat has
asked Hamas to join his cabinet as part of a reshuffle, PA/PLO
Secretary-General Tayeb Abdul Rahim said Saturday. Arafat's decision came on
the eve of a planned Palestinian Legislative Council meeting slated for
Monday, with PLC members threatening a no- confidence vote against the
PA/PLO because of its failure to deal with corruption. Gaza Hamas leader
Mahmoud Zahar said the movement's spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin would
return to Gaza early Tuesday and would decide on Arafat's offer after he
returns.  The Hamas spokesman in Jordan, Ibrahim Ghosheh, said on a RADIO
MONTE CARLO interview Saturday night that Hamas would not discuss joining
the PA's ranks. (According to the Oslo Accords, the PA/PLO are Israel's
'peace- partners'; however, their own charter [see:
www.womeningreen.org/pnc.htm], which has never been changed, calls for the
destruction of Israel. The charter of their new 'peace-partners', Hamas,
also calls for the destruction of Israel [see:
www.womeningreen.org/hamas.htm]-ed)

Meanwhile, Arafat discussed Friday with Pope John Paul II the Middle East
peace process. The pope has accepted Arafat's visit to Beit Lechem
(Bethlehem) for celebrations of the new millennium and told Arafat he would
pray for the "Palestinian nation" [Once again lies are being spread -- there
is no such thing as the "Palestinian nation".-ed] (JERUSALEM POST,
ARABICNEWS)

ARAFAT HAS SECRET MEETING WITH CIA: Reports from the Gaza Strip say the head
of the US Central Intelligence Agency, George Tenet, has held a meeting with
Arafat, to discuss the deadlocked Middle East peace process. Correspondents
say the Palestinians have asked the CIA to act as a neutral mediator in
negotiations with Israel on security. Israel has demanded that the
Palestinian security forces crack down on armed terrorist groups which
oppose the peace process, as a condition for further troop withdrawals from
Yesha. ISRAEL RADIO said Netanyahu also met with Tenet on Tuesday. Tenet's
visit to the region includes stops in Jordan, Israel, and Egypt. (BBC,
GLOBES, JERUSALEM POST)

JEWS MOVE INTO SILWAN: Members of the Elad (a Hebrew acronym for "to the
City of David") group, accompanied by their lawyer, took control of four
buildings and an empty lot in the Silwan area of eastern Jerusalem early
Monday morning, the JERUSALEM POST reported. Jerusalem Police Chief Yair
Yitzhaki said Elad had informed the police of its plans and that the
purchase of properties and all the preparations carried out by the group
were completely legal. Several hours after the move, Peace Now activists,
accompanied by Feisal Husseini, PA/PLO Minister of Jerusalem Affairs, as
well as other Palestinians, arrived at the site. They began to demonstrate,
and a brief, violent clash broke out between the two parties. The members of
Peace Now were removed by police. Yehuda Mali, Elad activist, said, "Over 50
percent of Silwan, or the City of David, including archaeological sites, is
in Jewish hands.

In other news, uniformed Palestinians are engaged in guard duty in the Old
City of Jerusalem. Jewish residents in the old Jewish Quarter (known today
as the Moslem Quarter) have complained that for the past week they have
noticed the unformed Arabs standing guard outside Arab stores, presenting
themselves as employees of a protection company. However, the residents
suspect that they are actually Palestinian policemen, marking the
introduction of the Palestinian para-military police in Jerusalem (which is
forbidden according to the Oslo Accords-ed). MK Rehavam Ze'evi (Moledet) has
requested from Internal Security Minister Avigdor Kahalani to investigate
the matter. (ISRAEL LINE, ICEJ, ARUTZ SHEVA)

ISRAEL AGREES TO YASSIN'S RETURN: Israel has informed the PA/PLO that it
will allow Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin to return to Gaza, according to
Ahmed Tibi, adviser to Arafat. Meanwhile, Yassin has been denied entry
temporarily into Egypt. He also was refused entry into Jordan for a second
time. As of Saturday night, Yassin was still waiting in Sudan for an
Egyptian visa. (JERUSALEM POST, ARUTZ SHEVA, ISRAEL LINE)

TERRORIST KILLED IN GAZA: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed a Palestinian
on Tuesday night who attempted to penetrate the Morag settlement in Gaza
carrying an explosive device, MA'ARIV reported. The PA/PLO police identified
the killed terrorist as a member of the Islamic Jihad. He is believed to be
responsible for a number of terrorist attempts in the Gaza Strip in the last
few months. A second Palestinian fled the scene. Security officials say that
they have recently received numerous warnings that Palestinian groups intend
further terrorist activity in the Gush Katif area, which includes Morag. The
following day two explosive devices were found at the site. The IDF has
beefed up its presence in this area. (ISRAEL LINE, CHANNEL 2/MED)

CLINTON WAIVES PLO AID PROHIBITIONS - Again: For the second time since
November 1997, when the Middle East Peace Facilitation Act (MEPFA) expired,
US President Clinton has waived sections of US law that prohibit government
assistance to the PA/PLO.

It is now known with greater certainty that Arafat received an American
promise to recognize the Palestinian state that he will declare next May 4.
(ARUTZ SHEVA)

ON THE NORTHERN FRONT: A member of the South Lebanon Army (SLA) was killed
and another injured Thursday in a rocket attack north of the Security Zone.
One report said Hizb'Allah had admitted responsibility for the attack.

In a recent speech, Sheikh Hassan Nasrullah, secretary-general of
Hizb'Allah, claimed he had received generous offers from various
"international powers" of recognition and financial assistance. (BBC, JANE'S
FOREIGN REPORT)

RUSSIA SELLING ADVANCED ARMS TO SYRIA: With its sale of Cornet anti-tank
missile systems, Russia has provided a sophisticated weapon system to Syria
for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, HA'ARETZ
reported. The Syrian army has also renewed negotiations for the purchase of
SA-10 anti-aircraft missiles. Israeli officials said on Wednesday that they
are concerned with the latest development, and that the new anti-tank
missiles are a "big step forward" for the Syrian army. According to a
security source, Russia is "willing to sell weapons anywhere in the world to
anyone who is willing to pay".
(ISRAEL LINE)

SYRIA FAVORS FULL ARAB SUMMIT ON PEACE: Syria is in favor of a full Arab
summit to discuss the faltering Middle East peace process, the Arabic
newspaper AL HAYAT reported on Friday. "Syria wants a wide summit with the
participation without exception of all Arab nations, including Iraq, Jordan
and the PLO," the paper said, citing high-ranking Syrian sources. "Syria is
not demanding Arab nations that have signed peace treaties with Israel to
cancel those accords, nor break off ties, but is seeking only the minimum --
a halt in normalization which benefits Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu," said the London-based newspaper. It said Damascus was seeking
the closure of Israeli representative offices in Arab nations. (AFP)

YOSI BEILIN: CONSULTANT TO ARABS: Many reports can be read in the Arab press
on the ties between Labor Knesset Member Dr. Yosi Beilin and Yasser Arafat.
Beilin has been guiding Arafat in the latest diplomatic maneuvers, and in
essence has been providing him and Egypt's Mubarak with on-going advice
about how to deal with the Israeli government.  Beilin's goal, of course, is
to force the Israeli government into making decisions that will fit in with
Beilin's original path for Israeli policy. (ARUTZ SHEVA)

REPORT: SWISS DENIED JEWISH ENTRY: A Simon Wiesenthal Center report shows
that the Swiss did not take as neutral a stance towards the Jews during the
Holocaust as is commonly assumed. According to the new findings,
then-Justice Minister of Switzerland Edward Von Steiger promised a Swiss
nationalist anti-Semitic group that he would not allow Jewish refugees to
enter the country. The Swiss Embassy in Washington hurried to deny the
reports, noting that during World War II Switzerland granted asylum to
27,000 Jews, while the U.S. allowed only 21,000 Jews to enter its borders
during that period. (ARUTZ SHEVA)

IRAN HANGS IRANIAN JEW: A 60-year-old Jewish man was hanged in Iran last
week, presumably for his assistance to Jews fleeing Iran, YEDIOT AHARONOT
reported. The man, from the Kathodzada family, was a member of Teheran's
Jewish community and was known for assisting Jews in distress. The man
disappeared last month, and his family was notified of his execution by
Iranian government officials last week. The authorities failed to give any
explanation for the execution. At least 13 Jews have been executed in Iran
since the Islamic revolution 19 years ago, most of them for either religious
reasons or their connection to Israel. (ISRAEL LINE)

EXCHANGE WITH HIZB'ALLAH? The Hizb'Allah terrorist organization announced
Wednesday that it had reached an agreement with Israel on the return of the
fallen IDF soldier Itamar Iliya. According to the announcement, Israel will
release 60 Lebanese prisoners, plus an undisclosed amount of dead
terrorists, in exchange for the body of the naval commando soldier who was
killed during an Israeli operation in Lebanon last summer. RADIO LEBANON
announced that the exchange would take place next Wednesday. No confirmation
of the report has been received from Jerusalem. (ARUTZ SHEVA)

PA/PLO CALL FOR RESISTANCE AGAINST JERUSALEM SETTLEMENTS: The PA/PLO
leadership called Friday for popular resistance against an upsurge in Jewish
settlements in east Jerusalem and urged the US to do more to save the
faltering peace process. It warned of an "explosion" which would reverberate
around the Middle East without a rapid resumption of the peace process after
15 months of deadlock. "The Palestinian leadership has decided to devote all
its efforts to strengthen the will of the Palestinians in Jerusalem and has
instructed anti-settlement groups to mobilize the masses in all the
Palestinian territories," the statement said.

Meanwhile, the chief Muslim cleric in Jerusalem, Mufti Ikrema Sabri, warned
that Palestinians who sell their homes to Jews will be considered traitors,
and urged Muslims to treat them as social outcasts and "have no dealings
with them". In New York, the UN Security Council on Thursday expressed
concern about the reports that a new Jewish "settlement" is being built in
east Jerusalem. "The Security Council expresses concern about events
reported and renews its support for the efforts to bring the two parties to
resume the peace process," council president Antonio Monteiro told reporters
after a closed-door session. The Palestinian mission representative, Nasser
Al Kidwa, sent two letters to the council, dated June 8 and 9, asking it to
address the issue. Diplomats say the 15 members of the council have not been
able to agree on a strongly worded statement on the latest action in Israel
because of US opposition to such a rebuke. In London, the European Union on
Friday also expressed concern at the recent activities of Jewish settler
groups. A statement issued by Britain, which holds the current EU
presidency, said: "We urge the Israeli government to take measures to
prevent such activities which threaten to damage the peace process." (JORDAN
TIMES)


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FYI - Israel In The News "For Zion's sake will I not hold my peace, and for
Jerusalem's sake I will not rest" Isaiah 62:1
'F.Y.I.' may be reproduced & distributed in any form. Please give proper
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